According to a new global study, the annual rate of new cases of adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes is stable or falling for many high-income individuals
Australian researchers who led the study say this is cause for cautious optimism
A global analysis of recent data reporting the incidence of diabetes over time found that the number of adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes annually in most high-income countries in Australia, Europe, USA and Asia has been stable or has declined over the past decade.
The results, which span 21 countries and include more than 22 million diabetes diagnoses, offer a different perspective than the numerous reports describing an increasing total number of people with diabetes in over 80% of the countries examined in this study.
Leading researchers from the Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute say prevention strategies, public health education and awareness campaigns may have contributed to this flattening of new cases in high-income countries, adding some assurance to global efforts to contain the diabetes epidemic offers has been effective over the past decade.
Professor Dianna Magliano, director of diabetes and population health at the Baker Institute, says this analysis by one of the largest consortia of data is encouraging and underscores the need to continue investing in comprehensive monitoring and prevention. She says the study also highlights the ability of researchers to use large amounts of data to identify trends in healthcare.
This study, published today in the Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology Journal and funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US and Diabetes Australia, is the first to look systematically at the incidence of diabetes – the number of people who the type 2 develop diabetes every year.
So far, understanding of the diabetes epidemic has mainly focused on the total number of people with type 2 diabetes at any given time – the prevalence of diabetes. While prevalence is a useful measure, incidence can be much more informative, especially for understanding the changing risk status in a population.
Of the 24 data sources, most of which come from the whole population and come from 19 high and two middle income countries, 23 data sources contained data as of 2010, 19 of which showed a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimate of change in incidence between -1.1% and -10.8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010, the estimated annual change was between 0.9% and 5.6%.
Australian National Diabetes Services Scheme data includes more than 850,000 cases of diabetes over a 13-year period.
Professor Magliano says that in many high-income countries, including Australia, there could be several reasons for the plateau or decline in diabetes incidence over the past decade.
She says, “We can begin to take advantage of type 2 diabetes prevention activities, including increased awareness, education, and risk factor changes.” We have improvements in diabetes screening and the addition of health education programs in schools and amusement parks Workplace established. and changes in the physical environment such as the introduction of bike lanes and practice parks. “
Professor Magliano says strategies to fight diabetes such as reformulating food, including removing trans fats from manufactured foods in the U.S. and reducing sugary drink intake in high-income countries, may also have had an impact.
“Other factors may also have influenced the reported incidence of diabetes. For example, none of the studies looked for undiagnosed diabetes. It is possible that one factor is a decrease in the number of people being screened for diabetes, although there is no direct evidence in the data to which we had access that this happened, ”says Professor Magliano.
However, Professor Magliano says the plateau or decline does not coincide with the obesity rate, with OECD rates continuing to show a projected increase in obesity for the next decade.
“These results provide important information for health planning and policy making, including where to best address public health and clinical efforts,” says Professor Magliano.
Australian Diabetes Society President, Associate Professor Stephen Stranks, said, “There are some important and encouraging findings in this report, but there are still hundreds of millions of people with diabetes worldwide and there is still a long way to go to get the epidemic under control to get “.
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